Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Lumberjacks UIW @ SFA

INCARNATE WORD

CARDINALSUIW

8-8  |  Road

46
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 7:00 PM ET
William R. Johnson Coliseum
View Odds Details →

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

13-3  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
LUMBERJACKS
100%
CARDINALS --
LUMBERJACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Incarnate Word)
CardinalsUIW (-3.5) 0 LumberjacksSFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

86.4%

Lumberjacks Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIW -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)

UIW By 1-7 points

21.6%

UIW By 8-14 points

27.4%

SFA By 1-7 points

9.3%

SFA By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
86
INCARNATE WORD
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
65
INCARNATE WORD
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lumberjacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Lumberjacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 SFA @ UIW 76 - 68
Jan 12, 2026 UIW @ SFA 46 - 56
Feb 22, 2025 SFA @ UIW 61 - 63
Jan 4, 2025 UIW @ SFA 55 - 49
Jan 16, 2021 SFA @ UIW 83 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Incarnate Word: 3.4 vs Stephen F. Austin: 2.5
Assists (L5) +44.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 15.8 vs Incarnate Word: 10.9
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 40.4 vs Incarnate Word: 34.7
Free Throw % (L5) +11.9%
Stephen F. Austin: 71.9% vs Incarnate Word: 60.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIW Score 86.0 46
SFA Score 75.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 34.2 10.0 / 0.0
Assists 15.8 / 10.9 7.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 40.3 34.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 60.0 55.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 34.7 45.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 10.1 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
UIW
SFA
UIW
ML
59% 17-12
47% 14-16
79% 23-6
76% 22-7
ATS
59% 17-12
53% 16-14
79% 23-6
77% 23-7
TTL
62% 18-11
60% 18-12
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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