MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
HAWKSUMES
6-13 | Road
74
NORFOLK STATE
SPARTANSNORF
7-11 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
HAWKS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Norfolk State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NORF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)
UMES By 1-7 points
4.8%
UMES By 8-14 points
1.1%
NORF By 1-7 points
15.3%
NORF By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
77
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Norfolk State
92
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
59
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Norfolk State
72
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 16, 2026
NORF @ UMES
70 - 66
Jan 12, 2026
UMES @ NORF
74 - 70
Mar 12, 2025
UMES @ NORF
70 - 77
Feb 15, 2025
NORF @ UMES
75 - 63
Jan 4, 2025
UMES @ NORF
59 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.7% more
Norfolk State: 3.3
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 2.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Norfolk State: 33.9%
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 31.5%
Steals (L5)
+19.7% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 7.5
vs
Norfolk State: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 14.1
vs
Norfolk State: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMES Score
77.0
74
NORF Score
92.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 31.5
23.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.2 / 14.1
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 44.1
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 72.8
70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
31.1 / 33.5
30.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.5
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 14.8
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
NORF
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
NORF
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.5
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1%
Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
UMES
NORF
UMES
ML
67%
20-10
66%
21-11
71%
20-8
81%
21-5
ATS
63%
19-11
69%
22-10
72%
21-8
81%
21-5
TTL
60%
18-12
66%
21-11
100%
29-0
100%
26-0
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