UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
6-10 | Road
63
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
5-11 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
DEMONS
0%
VAQUEROS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NWST -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
RGV By 1-7 points
1.1%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.1%
NWST By 1-7 points
5.8%
NWST By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
63
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Northwestern State
85
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
68
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Northwestern State
72
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demons (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
NWST @ RGV
62 - 74
Jan 12, 2026
RGV @ NWST
63 - 64
Feb 3, 2025
RGV @ NWST
63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Northwestern State: 37.2%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 31.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Northwestern State: 47.6%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 45.0%
Blocks (L5)
+57.3% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.3
vs
Northwestern State: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+33.7% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 16.9
vs
Northwestern State: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
63.0
63
NWST Score
85.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 31.8
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.2 / 16.9
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 45.0
41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 74.7
78.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
31.3 / 34.0
32.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.0 / 8.1
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 12.1
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
RGV
NWST
RGV
ML
68%
21-10
53%
16-14
77%
23-7
54%
15-13
ATS
68%
21-10
53%
16-14
77%
23-7
54%
15-13
TTL
39%
12-19
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
28-0
