Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Midshipmen @ Eagles NAVY @ AMER

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

12-5  |  Road

51
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

9-8  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
MIDSHIPMEN --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (American University)
MidshipmenNAVY (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Midshipmen Cover

0.1%

Eagles Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AMER -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

NAVY By 1-7 points

0.1%

NAVY By 8-14 points

0.0%

AMER By 1-7 points

0.8%

AMER By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
NAVY
87
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
NAVY
70
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 AMER @ NAVY 73 - 82
Jan 12, 2026 NAVY @ AMER 51 - 65
Mar 12, 2025 NAVY @ AMER 52 - 74
Feb 26, 2025 NAVY @ AMER 68 - 60
Jan 2, 2025 AMER @ NAVY 58 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
American University: 75.1% vs Navy: 69.0%
Blocks (L5) +84.4% more
Navy: 3.8 vs American University: 0.6
Rebounding (L5) +27.8% more
Navy: 38.9 vs American University: 28.1
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Navy: 17.3 vs American University: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 56.0 51
AMER Score 87.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 36.8 22.0 / 21.0
Assists 12.8 / 17.3 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 0.6 / 3.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 48.7 38.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 69.0 78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.1 / 38.9 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.3 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.2 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
NAVY
AMER
NAVY
ML
62% 20-12
79% 26-7
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
ATS
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
TTL
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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