ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
2-12 | Road
66
ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
4-12 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
HORNETS
0%
BRAVES
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Alabama State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)
ALCN By 1-7 points
20.1%
ALCN By 8-14 points
9.3%
ALST By 1-7 points
27.4%
ALST By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Alcorn State
86
ALCORN STATE
Alabama State
90
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
Alcorn State
70
ALCORN STATE
Alabama State
75
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
ALCN @ ALST
77 - 65
Jan 12, 2026
ALCN @ ALST
66 - 81
Jan 13, 2025
ALST @ ALCN
65 - 67
Jan 13, 2024
ALCN @ ALST
53 - 55
Jan 9, 2023
ALST @ ALCN
76 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.4% more
Alabama State: 4.9
vs
Alcorn State: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+41.0% more
Alabama State: 9.1
vs
Alcorn State: 6.5
Turnovers (L5)
+22.6% more
Alabama State: 14.9
vs
Alcorn State: 12.1
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Alabama State: 37.8
vs
Alcorn State: 31.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score
86.0
66
ALST Score
90.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.9 / 36.9
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
9.7 / 11.9
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.1 / 39.6
52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 69.9
81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 31.5
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
9.1 / 6.5
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 12.1
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
ALST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
ALST
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
ALCN
ALST
ALCN
ML
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
76%
19-6
75%
18-6
ATS
65%
20-11
68%
21-10-1
76%
19-6
75%
18-6
TTL
52%
16-15
47%
15-17
100%
25-0
100%
24-0
Contextual Game News
