Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Bears NCCU @ MORG

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

6-11  |  Road

89
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

4-12  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
EAGLES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Morgan State)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Bears Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

NCCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

MORG By 1-7 points

26.2%

MORG By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
63
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
64
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
72
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 MORG @ NCCU 76 - 80
Jan 12, 2026 NCCU @ MORG 89 - 78
Feb 17, 2025 MORG @ NCCU 92 - 78
Jan 7, 2025 NCCU @ MORG 98 - 102
Mar 4, 2024 NCCU @ MORG 79 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.0% more
North Carolina Central: 8.2 vs Morgan State: 5.1
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
North Carolina Central: 3.3 vs Morgan State: 2.4
Assists (L5) +21.2% more
North Carolina Central: 15.7 vs Morgan State: 12.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
North Carolina Central: 13.1 vs Morgan State: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 63.0 89
MORG Score 64.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 35.1 32.0 / 44.0
Assists 12.3 / 15.7 14.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.3 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 46.9 44.0 / 64.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 71.1 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 33.5 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.1 / 8.2 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 13.1 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
NCCU
MORG
NCCU
ML
50% 14-14
65% 20-11
58% 14-10
81% 22-5
ATS
50% 14-14
71% 22-9
58% 14-10
81% 22-5
TTL
50% 14-14
55% 17-14
100% 24-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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