HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
22-13 | Road
98
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
8-30 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
HOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
25.3%
SAC By 1-7 points
15.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
119
HOUSTON
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Sacramento
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+14)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.0
Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SAC @ HOU
97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026
HOU @ SAC
98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025
HOU @ SAC
124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025
SAC @ HOU
95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025
SAC @ HOU
113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+29.9% more
Houston: 53.3
vs
Sacramento: 37.4
Blocks (L5)
+12.4% more
Houston: 6.4
vs
Sacramento: 5.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Sacramento: 75.2%
vs
Houston: 69.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Sacramento: 45.3%
vs
Houston: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
119.0
98
SAC Score
112.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 26.3
35.0 / 23.0
Assists
22.3 / 21.9
25.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.6 / 6.4
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 43.3
48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 69.7
75.0 / 66.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 53.3
45.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.1 / 8.0
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 13.9
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
HOU
SAC
HOU
ML
55%
55-45
61%
69-44
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
62%
70-43
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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