Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Raptors PHI @ TOR

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

21-15  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 6:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

23-16  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
76ERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Toronto)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

24.2%

Raptors Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

PHI By 1-7 points

15.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

5.8%

TOR By 1-7 points

26.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
PHILADELPHIA
120
TORONTO
Simulated Score
110
PHILADELPHIA
117
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o220.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u220.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 12, 2026 PHI @ TOR 115 - 102
Jan 11, 2026 PHI @ TOR 115 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 TOR @ PHI 121 - 112
Nov 8, 2025 TOR @ PHI 120 - 130
Mar 30, 2025 TOR @ PHI 127 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Toronto: 30.3 vs Philadelphia: 24.7
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Philadelphia: 11.3 vs Toronto: 7.6
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Philadelphia: 12.6 vs Toronto: 9.3
Blocks (L5) +18.3% more
Philadelphia: 6.5 vs Toronto: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 113.0 115
TOR Score 120.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 30.3 16.0 / 26.0
Assists 30.3 / 24.7 29.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.3 / 6.5 6.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 47.1 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 82.8 74.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 44.2 48.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.6 / 11.3 14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 12.6 15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
55% 57-47
63% 69-40
55% 48-39
48% 45-48
ATS
61% 62-40-2
65% 71-38
55% 48-39
48% 45-48
TTL
60% 62-42
55% 60-49
100% 87-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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