NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
9-31 | Road
118
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
21-18 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
MAGIC
100%
PELICANS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
NO By 1-7 points
27.4%
NO By 8-14 points
21.6%
ORL By 1-7 points
20.1%
ORL By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
127
NEW ORLEANS
Orlando
123
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
ORL @ NO
112 - 108
Jan 11, 2026
NO @ ORL
118 - 128
Oct 16, 2025
NO @ ORL
125 - 132
Mar 13, 2025
ORL @ NO
113 - 93
Nov 8, 2024
NO @ ORL
88 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.7% more
New Orleans: 10.4
vs
Orlando: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
New Orleans: 18.1
vs
Orlando: 16.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
New Orleans: 30.9%
vs
Orlando: 27.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
New Orleans: 47.8%
vs
Orlando: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
127.0
118
ORL Score
123.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.0 / 30.9
46.0 / 54.0
Assists
26.1 / 27.3
27.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.3 / 5.9
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 47.8
52.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 68.8
89.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.3 / 45.3
39.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.4
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 18.1
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
NO
ORL
NO
ML
61%
65-42
62%
98-61
56%
51-40
58%
48-35
ATS
64%
68-38-1
68%
107-51-1
56%
51-40
58%
48-35
TTL
57%
61-46
75%
119-40
100%
91-0
100%
83-0
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