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MIAMI

HEATMIA

20-18  |  Road

112
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 7:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

32-7  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
HEAT --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oklahoma City)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

11.5%

Thunder Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIA By 1-7 points

8.0%

MIA By 8-14 points

2.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

20.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
116
MIAMI
128
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.0 Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 OKC @ MIA 120 - 122
Jan 11, 2026 MIA @ OKC 112 - 124
Feb 12, 2025 MIA @ OKC 101 - 115
Dec 20, 2024 OKC @ MIA 104 - 97
Mar 8, 2024 MIA @ OKC 100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +61.7% more
Oklahoma City: 7.5 vs Miami: 4.7
Steals (L5) +17.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5 vs Miami: 9.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Oklahoma City: 45.7% vs Miami: 41.9%
Turnovers (L5) +47.2% more
Miami: 17.5 vs Oklahoma City: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 116.0 112
OKC Score 128.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 28.9 29.0 / 53.0
Assists 24.1 / 24.8 23.0 / 35.0
Blocks 7.5 / 4.7 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 41.9 51.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 80.4 / 79.4 71.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 47.5 46.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.5 / 9.0 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 17.5 13.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIA
OKC
MIA
ML
70% 80-34
48% 46-50
48% 46-49
59% 48-34
ATS
73% 83-30-1
51% 49-47
48% 46-49
59% 48-34
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 57-39
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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