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MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

10-7  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 2:00 PM ET
Yanitelli Center
View Odds Details →

SAINT PETER'S

PEACOCKSSPU

7-6  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PEACOCKS
100%
WARRIORS --
PEACOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Merrimack)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 PeacocksSPU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

99.2%

Peacocks Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-7 points

4.0%

MRMK By 8-14 points

12.2%

SPU By 1-7 points

0.6%

SPU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MERRIMACK
58
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
65
MERRIMACK
68
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Peacocks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Peacocks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 SPU @ MRMK 59 - 67
Jan 11, 2026 MRMK @ SPU 63 - 76
Jan 23, 2025 MRMK @ SPU 48 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.5% more
Merrimack: 13.5 vs Saint Peter's: 10.3
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Merrimack: 4.9 vs Saint Peter's: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.0%
Merrimack: 35.8% vs Saint Peter's: 25.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Merrimack: 43.8% vs Saint Peter's: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 82.0 63
SPU Score 58.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.8 / 35.8 38.0 / 11.0
Assists 10.3 / 13.5 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.9 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 35.4 / 43.8 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 74.4 70.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 27.6 37.0 / 26.0
Steals 9.5 / 8.4 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 8.3 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
SPU
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
SPU Advantage
16-11-1 (59.3%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
MRMK
SPU
MRMK
ML
64% 18-10
47% 16-18
71% 20-8
65% 22-12
ATS
71% 20-8
53% 18-16
71% 20-8
65% 22-12
TTL
61% 17-11
62% 21-13
100% 28-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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