NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
4-11 | Road
70
MANHATTAN
JASPERSMAN
7-10 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
JASPERS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES
--
JASPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Niagara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)
NIA By 1-7 points
18.6%
NIA By 8-14 points
26.8%
MAN By 1-7 points
6.8%
MAN By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Niagara
78
NIAGARA
Manhattan
65
MANHATTAN
Simulated Score
Niagara
68
NIAGARA
Manhattan
72
MANHATTAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Purple Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaspers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Purple Eagles (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Jaspers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 13, 2026
MAN @ NIA
76 - 69
Jan 11, 2026
NIA @ MAN
70 - 79
Mar 2, 2025
MAN @ NIA
85 - 70
Jan 18, 2025
NIA @ MAN
65 - 72
Jan 28, 2024
MAN @ NIA
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.7% more
Niagara: 3.2
vs
Manhattan: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+29.1% more
Manhattan: 34.6
vs
Niagara: 26.8
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
Manhattan: 10.4
vs
Niagara: 9.0
Steals (L5)
+10.5% more
Manhattan: 5.8
vs
Niagara: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIA Score
78.0
70
MAN Score
65.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 30.0
40.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.4 / 13.1
18.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.2
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 41.9
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
86.3 / 81.0
90.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 26.8
32.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.2
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 9.0
5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
MAN
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
MAN
11-19-1
(36.7%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MAN
NIA
MAN
NIA
ML
52%
16-15
55%
16-13
68%
21-10
72%
21-8
ATS
52%
16-15
69%
20-9
69%
22-10
72%
21-8
TTL
77%
24-7
55%
16-13
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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