PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
10-8 | Road
79
ROBERT MORRIS
COLONIALSRMU
11-6 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
0%
COLONIALS
100%
MASTODONS
--
COLONIALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PFW -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)
PFW By 1-7 points
25.3%
PFW By 8-14 points
26.2%
RMU By 1-7 points
13.7%
RMU By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
95
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Robert Morris
87
ROBERT MORRIS
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
70
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Robert Morris
72
ROBERT MORRIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mastodons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonials
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mastodons (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Colonials (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
RMU @ PFW
71 - 83
Jan 11, 2026
PFW @ RMU
79 - 74
Feb 15, 2025
PFW @ RMU
69 - 76
Dec 8, 2024
RMU @ PFW
77 - 82
Mar 5, 2024
RMU @ PFW
63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.5% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.2
vs
Robert Morris: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+49.9% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.8
vs
Robert Morris: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+34.4% more
Robert Morris: 18.5
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 13.8
Rebounding (L5)
+22.9% more
Robert Morris: 34.0
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 27.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
95.0
79
RMU Score
87.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 34.5
37.0 / 46.0
Assists
18.5 / 13.8
20.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.2
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 41.1
44.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 69.1
70.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 27.7
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
3.9 / 7.8
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.6
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
RMU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
RMU
Advantage
19-11-1
(63.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RMU
PFW
RMU
PFW
ML
36%
12-21
59%
19-13
56%
18-14
74%
23-8
ATS
55%
18-15
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
74%
23-8
TTL
55%
18-15
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
