Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Shockers UNT @ WICH

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

10-6  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 3:00 PM ET
Charles Koch Arena
View Odds Details →

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

9-7  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
100%
📊
SHOCKERS
0%
MEAN GREEN --
SHOCKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Wichita State)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 ShockersWICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

9.7%

Shockers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WICH -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

UNT By 1-7 points

6.8%

UNT By 8-14 points

1.7%

WICH By 1-7 points

18.6%

WICH By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH TEXAS
82
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
65
NORTH TEXAS
68
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Shockers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Shockers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Shockers (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Shockers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 11, 2026 UNT @ WICH 67 - 78
Mar 3, 2025 WICH @ UNT 66 - 68
Jan 29, 2025 UNT @ WICH 58 - 54
Jan 4, 2024 UNT @ WICH 74 - 62
Dec 18, 2021 UNT @ WICH 62 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +34.9% more
Wichita State: 41.8 vs North Texas: 31.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.6%
Wichita State: 73.8% vs North Texas: 61.2%
Steals (L5) +56.3% more
North Texas: 10.3 vs Wichita State: 4.5
Blocks (L5) +41.2% more
North Texas: 5.1 vs Wichita State: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 69.0 67
WICH Score 82.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 34.8 45.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.2 / 12.9 8.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.1 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 45.5 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 61.2 72.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 41.8 / 31.0 39.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.5 / 10.3 8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 12.5 18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
UNT
WICH
UNT
ML
61% 22-14
70% 23-10
68% 23-11
59% 19-13
ATS
64% 23-13
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
59% 19-13
TTL
69% 25-11
67% 22-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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