MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
10-5 | Road
71
RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-13 | Home
49
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
0%
BRONCS
100%
RED FOXES
--
BRONCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
MRST By 1-7 points
1.4%
MRST By 8-14 points
5.8%
RID By 1-7 points
0.1%
RID By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Marist
82
MARIST
Rider
53
RIDER
Simulated Score
Marist
68
MARIST
Rider
72
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Foxes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Foxes (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Broncs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
RID @ MRST
52 - 81
Jan 11, 2026
MRST @ RID
71 - 49
Jan 18, 2025
RID @ MRST
64 - 57
Feb 10, 2024
MRST @ RID
77 - 62
Jan 14, 2024
RID @ MRST
60 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+49.2% more
Marist: 8.9
vs
Rider: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+30.1% more
Marist: 16.6
vs
Rider: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Marist: 78.3%
vs
Rider: 67.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Marist: 28.3%
vs
Rider: 24.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRST Score
82.0
71
RID Score
53.0
49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.3 / 28.3
17.0 / 38.0
Assists
11.6 / 16.6
7.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.6 / 1.6
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 46.0
38.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 78.3
57.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 35.4
30.0 / 40.0
Steals
4.5 / 8.9
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 9.6
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
MRST
RID
MRST
ML
72%
21-8
55%
17-14
66%
19-10
61%
19-12
ATS
72%
21-8
74%
23-8
66%
19-10
61%
19-12
TTL
62%
18-11
52%
16-15
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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