Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Mountaineers SIE @ MSM

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

10-6  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 2:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

6-11  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
SAINTS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Siena)
SaintsSIE (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

99.2%

Mountaineers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIE -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)

SIE By 1-7 points

4.0%

SIE By 8-14 points

12.2%

MSM By 1-7 points

0.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SIENA
54
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
SIENA
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MSM @ SIE 58 - 63
Jan 11, 2026 SIE @ MSM 67 - 50
Mar 2, 2025 SIE @ MSM 79 - 85
Jan 23, 2025 MSM @ SIE 68 - 82
Feb 4, 2024 MSM @ SIE 68 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Siena: 78.1% vs Mount St. Mary's: 72.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Siena: 42.0% vs Mount St. Mary's: 40.4%
Steals (L5) +55.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 7.8 vs Siena: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.0 vs Siena: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIE Score 78.0 67
MSM Score 54.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 29.6 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.6 / 11.7 6.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 42.0 29.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 78.1 70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 36.9 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.0 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 9.9 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
SIE
MSM
SIE
ML
53% 17-15
66% 23-12
61% 19-12
48% 16-17
ATS
62% 20-12
66% 23-12
61% 19-12
48% 16-17
TTL
81% 26-6
54% 19-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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