NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
13-5 | Road
78
GREEN BAY
PHOENIXGB
9-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
PHOENIX
0%
NORSE
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Green Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)
NKU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NKU By 8-14 points
10.7%
GB By 1-7 points
27.2%
GB By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
79
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Green Bay
82
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
68
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Green Bay
72
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
NKU @ GB
96 - 76
Feb 4, 2026
GB @ NKU
87 - 84
Jan 11, 2026
NKU @ GB
78 - 80
Feb 14, 2025
NKU @ GB
73 - 60
Jan 4, 2025
GB @ NKU
60 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Green Bay: 51.6%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 47.8%
Steals (L5)
+46.5% more
Northern Kentucky: 8.3
vs
Green Bay: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+25.2% more
Northern Kentucky: 16.6
vs
Green Bay: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
Northern Kentucky: 1.8
vs
Green Bay: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
79.0
78
GB Score
82.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 37.5
53.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.4 / 16.6
20.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.6 / 1.8
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 47.8
58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 75.9
67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 38.5
34.0 / 25.0
Steals
4.4 / 8.3
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.6
9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GB
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GB
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
GB
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
NKU
GB
NKU
ML
48%
16-17
53%
18-16
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
ATS
52%
17-16
56%
19-15
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
19-14
68%
23-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
