SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
9-7 | Road
67
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
12-4 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
SPIDERS
100%
HAWKS
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
JOES By 1-7 points
0.5%
JOES By 8-14 points
2.7%
RICH By 1-7 points
0.0%
RICH By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Joseph's
85
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Richmond
52
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
Saint Joseph's
68
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Richmond
72
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 11, 2026
JOES @ RICH
67 - 65
Feb 22, 2025
RICH @ JOES
62 - 78
Mar 14, 2024
JOES @ RICH
66 - 61
Mar 6, 2024
JOES @ RICH
66 - 73
Mar 1, 2023
RICH @ JOES
67 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.2% more
Saint Joseph's: 4.1
vs
Richmond: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+18.7% more
Saint Joseph's: 10.7
vs
Richmond: 8.7
Assists (L5)
+22.4% more
Richmond: 16.4
vs
Saint Joseph's: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+20.4%
Richmond: 46.3%
vs
Saint Joseph's: 26.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JOES Score
85.0
67
RICH Score
52.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
46.3 / 26.0
40.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.4 / 13.4
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.1
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 42.5
34.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
78.7 / 74.3
69.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 34.9
37.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.6
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 10.7
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
RICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
RICH
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
JOES
RICH
JOES
ML
53%
17-15
51%
18-17
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
ATS
44%
14-18
60%
21-14
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
TTL
56%
18-14
54%
19-16
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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