MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
6-10 | Road
70
WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
6-8 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
LAKERS
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
WAGNER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Wagner)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAG -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)
MERC By 1-7 points
0.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.0%
WAG By 1-7 points
0.3%
WAG By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
74
MERCYHURST
Wagner
109
WAGNER
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
70
MERCYHURST
Wagner
75
WAGNER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
WAG @ MERC
83 - 80
Jan 10, 2026
MERC @ WAG
70 - 69
Jan 24, 2025
WAG @ MERC
66 - 71
Jan 18, 2025
MERC @ WAG
69 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.9% more
Wagner: 14.6
vs
Mercyhurst: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+22.4% more
Wagner: 38.5
vs
Mercyhurst: 31.4
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Wagner: 11.6
vs
Mercyhurst: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Wagner: 76.4%
vs
Mercyhurst: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
74.0
70
WAG Score
109.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 31.3
48.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.6 / 11.5
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.0
1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 44.7
43.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 69.6
56.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 31.4
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.5
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.1
12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
WAG
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
WAG
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAG
MERC
WAG
MERC
ML
63%
19-11
59%
20-14
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
ATS
60%
18-12
62%
21-13
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
TTL
53%
16-14
53%
18-16
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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