INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
8-7 | Road
51
LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
7-8 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
CARDINALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIW -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
UIW By 1-7 points
24.3%
UIW By 8-14 points
26.8%
LAM By 1-7 points
12.2%
LAM By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Incarnate Word
67
INCARNATE WORD
Lamar
58
LAMAR
Simulated Score
Incarnate Word
73
INCARNATE WORD
Lamar
78
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
LAM @ UIW
60 - 72
Jan 10, 2026
UIW @ LAM
51 - 63
Feb 24, 2025
LAM @ UIW
61 - 73
Jan 6, 2025
UIW @ LAM
58 - 72
Feb 12, 2024
LAM @ UIW
67 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.1% more
Incarnate Word: 7.0
vs
Lamar: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Incarnate Word: 35.8%
vs
Lamar: 28.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Incarnate Word: 41.5%
vs
Lamar: 36.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+23.1% more
Lamar: 11.3
vs
Incarnate Word: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UIW Score
67.0
51
LAM Score
58.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 35.8
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.1 / 10.4
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.1
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
36.7 / 41.5
42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 71.0
69.0 / 38.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 36.1
39.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.0
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 9.2
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
LAM
Advantage
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
UIW
LAM
UIW
ML
55%
16-13
47%
14-16
59%
17-12
76%
22-7
ATS
52%
15-14
53%
16-14
60%
18-12
77%
23-7
TTL
72%
21-8
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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