UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
9-6 | Road
78
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
6-11 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
AGGIES
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCD -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCD By 1-7 points
0.5%
UCD By 8-14 points
2.7%
CP By 1-7 points
0.0%
CP By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
89
UC DAVIS
Cal Poly
56
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
UC Davis
75
UC DAVIS
Cal Poly
62
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Aggies (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u168.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u168.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
CP @ UCD
58 - 67
Jan 10, 2026
UCD @ CP
78 - 84
Mar 12, 2025
CP @ UCD
86 - 76
Jan 16, 2025
UCD @ CP
65 - 54
Dec 5, 2024
CP @ UCD
66 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.9% more
UC Davis: 2.6
vs
Cal Poly: 1.7
Assists (L5)
+34.8% more
UC Davis: 18.4
vs
Cal Poly: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
UC Davis: 48.7%
vs
Cal Poly: 39.0%
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
UC Davis: 8.2
vs
Cal Poly: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
89.0
78
CP Score
56.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 39.2
29.0 / 39.0
Assists
12.0 / 18.4
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.6
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
39.0 / 48.7
42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 79.3
93.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 34.2
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 12.3
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
UCD
CP
UCD
ML
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
ATS
64%
21-12
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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