AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
9-5 | Road
81
STETSON
HATTERSSTET
6-10 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
HATTERS
0%
GOVERNORS
--
HATTERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
STETSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Stetson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STET -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STET)
APSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
APSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
STET By 1-7 points
24.3%
STET By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
60
AUSTIN PEAY
Stetson
69
STETSON
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
68
AUSTIN PEAY
Stetson
72
STETSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hatters
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hatters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hatters (+9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Hatters (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
STET @ APSU
60 - 69
Jan 23, 2026
STET @ APSU
65 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
APSU @ STET
81 - 69
Feb 15, 2025
STET @ APSU
63 - 76
Mar 10, 2024
APSU @ STET
91 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.6% more
Stetson: 13.0
vs
Austin Peay: 9.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Stetson: 47.3%
vs
Austin Peay: 43.7%
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
Austin Peay: 3.3
vs
Stetson: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+36.4% more
Austin Peay: 11.5
vs
Stetson: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
60.0
81
STET Score
69.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 35.7
29.0 / 37.0
Assists
14.2 / 16.8
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 43.7
41.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 75.5
64.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
30.0 / 36.3
41.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.3 / 11.5
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 9.5
14.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
STET
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STET
APSU
STET
APSU
ML
55%
18-15
53%
16-14
73%
24-9
59%
16-11
ATS
64%
21-12
57%
17-13
73%
24-9
59%
16-11
TTL
61%
20-13
57%
17-13
100%
33-0
100%
27-0
