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UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

15-2  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 6:00 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

9-8  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
📊
SEAWOLVES
100%
SEAHAWKS --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
STONY BROOK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SeahawksUNCW (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

42.1%

Seawolves Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STBK +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STBK)

UNCW By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNCW By 8-14 points

18.6%

STBK By 1-7 points

23.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UNC WILMINGTON
67
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
68
UNC WILMINGTON
72
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seawolves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 UNCW @ STBK 75 - 71
Feb 1, 2025 STBK @ UNCW 70 - 80
Jan 27, 2024 UNCW @ STBK 78 - 86
Feb 23, 2023 STBK @ UNCW 69 - 76
Jan 21, 2023 UNCW @ STBK 62 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.6% more
UNC Wilmington: 5.4 vs Stony Brook: 3.2
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
UNC Wilmington: 41.4 vs Stony Brook: 33.2
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
UNC Wilmington: 12.7 vs Stony Brook: 11.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
UNC Wilmington: 42.5% vs Stony Brook: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score 69.0 75
STBK Score 67.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 30.0 34.0 / 48.0
Assists 11.3 / 12.7 18.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.4 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 34.7 / 42.5 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 69.4 83.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 41.4 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 10.9 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
UNCW
STBK
UNCW
ML
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
52% 17-16
ATS
61% 19-12
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
52% 17-16
TTL
65% 20-11
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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