Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Racers VAL @ MUR

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

8-8  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

14-3  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
0%
📊
RACERS
100%
BEACONS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Valparaiso)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

97.7%

Racers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

VAL By 1-7 points

8.0%

VAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

MUR By 1-7 points

1.7%

MUR By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
88
VALPARAISO
68
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
68
VALPARAISO
73
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beacons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beacons (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 VAL @ MUR 79 - 92
Dec 21, 2025 MUR @ VAL 85 - 79
Feb 8, 2025 MUR @ VAL 74 - 56
Jan 11, 2025 VAL @ MUR 47 - 58
Feb 24, 2024 VAL @ MUR 68 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.3% more
Valparaiso: 4.9 vs Murray State: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.0%
Valparaiso: 45.8% vs Murray State: 34.9%
Assists (L5) +39.4% more
Murray State: 14.6 vs Valparaiso: 10.5
Blocks (L5) +16.4% more
Murray State: 4.1 vs Valparaiso: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 88.0 79
MUR Score 68.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 45.8 39.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.6 / 10.5 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 41.7 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 75.6 78.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 33.3 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.2 / 4.9 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.7 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
VAL
MUR
VAL
ML
58% 19-14
48% 16-17
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
ATS
52% 17-16
52% 17-16
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
TTL
70% 23-10
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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