SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
4-12 | Road
55
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
11-6 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
LANCERS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CBU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)
SUU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SUU By 8-14 points
18.6%
CBU By 1-7 points
23.0%
CBU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Utah
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
California Baptist
66
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
Southern Utah
71
SOUTHERN UTAH
California Baptist
77
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunderbirds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lancers (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
CBU @ SUU
82 - 75
Feb 12, 2026
CBU @ SUU
83 - 66
Jan 10, 2026
SUU @ CBU
55 - 58
Feb 6, 2025
SUU @ CBU
60 - 57
Jan 25, 2025
CBU @ SUU
76 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.1% more
Southern Utah: 3.5
vs
California Baptist: 1.7
Assists (L5)
+24.4% more
Southern Utah: 14.3
vs
California Baptist: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+15.5% more
Southern Utah: 6.2
vs
California Baptist: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Southern Utah: 37.0%
vs
California Baptist: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SUU Score
68.0
55
CBU Score
66.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 37.0
23.0 / 29.0
Assists
10.8 / 14.3
7.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.7 / 3.5
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 43.9
31.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 64.9
58.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 32.2
47.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.8
6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
SUU
CBU
SUU
ML
50%
17-17
61%
19-12
76%
25-8
68%
21-10
ATS
53%
18-16
71%
22-9
76%
25-8
69%
22-10
TTL
47%
16-18
52%
16-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0