Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Redbirds UIC @ ILST

UIC

FLAMESUIC

6-10  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 5:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

12-4  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
REDBIRDS
0%
FLAMES --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Illinois State)
FlamesUIC (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

34.5%

Redbirds Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

UIC By 1-7 points

20.1%

UIC By 8-14 points

9.3%

ILST By 1-7 points

27.4%

ILST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
UIC
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
UIC
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redbirds (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 ILST @ UIC 56 - 83
Jan 10, 2026 UIC @ ILST 63 - 59
Feb 5, 2025 ILST @ UIC 81 - 79
Dec 29, 2024 UIC @ ILST 73 - 67
Feb 7, 2024 UIC @ ILST 61 - 56
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Illinois State: 35.8% vs UIC: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Illinois State: 49.1% vs UIC: 44.1%
Blocks (L5) +55.9% more
UIC: 4.1 vs Illinois State: 1.8
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
UIC: 16.0 vs Illinois State: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIC Score 68.0 63
ILST Score 72.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 28.8 23.0 / 21.0
Assists 12.3 / 16.0 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 44.1 27.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 64.0 / 70.4 77.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 37.2 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.6 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.1 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIC
--
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIC
--
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UIC
--
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
UIC
ILST
UIC
ML
42% 15-21
57% 20-15
71% 24-10
44% 15-19
ATS
58% 21-15
54% 19-16
71% 24-10
44% 15-19
TTL
58% 21-15
60% 21-14
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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