MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
9-7 | Road
89
IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
9-6 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
VANDALS
100%
BOBCATS
--
VANDALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
MTST By 1-7 points
8.0%
MTST By 8-14 points
18.6%
IDHO By 1-7 points
1.7%
IDHO By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Montana State
100
MONTANA STATE
Idaho
80
IDAHO
Simulated Score
Montana State
72
MONTANA STATE
Idaho
78
IDAHO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vandals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Vandals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
78 - 74
Feb 5, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
66 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
MTST @ IDHO
89 - 92
Mar 3, 2025
IDHO @ MTST
60 - 75
Jan 2, 2025
MTST @ IDHO
64 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.0% more
Montana State: 3.9
vs
Idaho: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Montana State: 11.4
vs
Idaho: 9.6
Turnovers (L5)
+8.2% more
Montana State: 11.5
vs
Idaho: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Montana State: 78.8%
vs
Idaho: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTST Score
100.0
89
IDHO Score
80.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 34.5
45.0 / 57.0
Assists
9.6 / 11.4
10.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.9
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 45.7
50.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 78.8
79.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 33.7
29.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.8
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 11.5
5.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
IDHO
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDHO
MTST
IDHO
MTST
ML
56%
20-16
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
ATS
58%
21-15
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
TTL
69%
25-11
65%
20-11
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
