Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Buccaneers UNCG @ ETSU

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

6-10  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

11-5  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
SPARTANS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

94.5%

Buccaneers Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCG -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

UNCG By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNCG By 8-14 points

24.3%

ETSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
86
UNC GREENSBORO
70
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
UNC GREENSBORO
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ETSU @ UNCG 87 - 75
Jan 10, 2026 UNCG @ ETSU 60 - 86
Feb 19, 2025 UNCG @ ETSU 49 - 65
Jan 29, 2025 ETSU @ UNCG 65 - 70
Mar 9, 2024 ETSU @ UNCG 73 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.9% more
UNC Greensboro: 39.3 vs East Tennessee State: 33.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.8%
UNC Greensboro: 49.2% vs East Tennessee State: 37.5%
Blocks (L5) +288.0% more
East Tennessee State: 3.9 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.0
Steals (L5) +69.6% more
East Tennessee State: 7.0 vs UNC Greensboro: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 86.0 60
ETSU Score 70.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 49.2 33.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.1 / 13.6 17.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.0 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 48.6 60.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 70.1 75.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 39.3 27.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.2 15.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 7.9 8.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
1%MONEY99%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
UNCG
ETSU
UNCG
ML
42% 14-19
38% 13-21
70% 23-10
71% 24-10
ATS
58% 19-14
44% 15-19
70% 23-10
71% 24-10
TTL
45% 15-18
76% 26-8
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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