Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Broncos USU @ BOIS

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

13-1  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 9:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

9-6  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
AGGIES --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Boise State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

18.4%

Broncos Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

USU By 1-7 points

12.2%

USU By 8-14 points

4.0%

BOIS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOIS By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UTAH STATE
65
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
73
UTAH STATE
76
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 BOIS @ USU 56 - 75
Jan 10, 2026 USU @ BOIS 93 - 68
Feb 26, 2025 USU @ BOIS 65 - 82
Jan 11, 2025 BOIS @ USU 79 - 81
Feb 10, 2024 BOIS @ USU 61 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.1% more
Boise State: 13.4 vs Utah State: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Boise State: 77.8% vs Utah State: 70.7%
Assists (L5) +43.9% more
Utah State: 19.4 vs Boise State: 10.9
Steals (L5) +38.9% more
Utah State: 8.2 vs Boise State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 56.0 93
BOIS Score 65.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 40.5 27.0 / 44.0
Assists 10.9 / 19.4 10.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 56.3 37.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 70.7 76.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 36.7 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.2 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 10.5 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
USU
BOIS
USU
ML
50% 16-16
49% 17-18
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
ATS
50% 16-16
74% 26-9
61% 19-12
67% 22-11
TTL
56% 18-14
51% 18-17
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 15 hours ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 15 hours ago
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Bucky McMillan's Roster Overhaul: Texas A&M Basketball Eyes Tour…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago