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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-10  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

9-5  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
SPARTANS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Grand Canyon)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

27.4%

Lopes Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

SJSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SJSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

GCU By 1-7 points

26.8%

GCU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
SAN JOSÉ STATE
64
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
82
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 GCU @ SJSU 94 - 79
Jan 10, 2026 SJSU @ GCU 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.1% more
Grand Canyon: 3.6 vs San José State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5) +37.3% more
Grand Canyon: 35.6 vs San José State: 25.9
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
Grand Canyon: 7.1 vs San José State: 6.2
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Grand Canyon: 46.7% vs San José State: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 58.0 58
GCU Score 64.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 35.7 30.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.7 / 12.1 16.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 40.8 46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 78.9 83.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 25.9 33.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 12.1 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
SJSU
GCU
SJSU
ML
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
ATS
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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