Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Golden Eagles STMN @ ORU

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

13-4  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Mabee Center
View Odds Details →

ORAL ROBERTS

GOLDEN EAGLESORU

5-12  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
TOMMIES --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesORU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

91.9%

Golden Eagles Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

STMN By 1-7 points

16.9%

STMN By 8-14 points

26.2%

ORU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ORU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
54
ORAL ROBERTS
Simulated Score
73
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
76
ORAL ROBERTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tommies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tommies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ORU @ STMN 75 - 92
Jan 10, 2026 STMN @ ORU 82 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 STMN @ ORU 66 - 71
Jan 29, 2025 ORU @ STMN 71 - 86
Feb 8, 2024 ORU @ STMN 63 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +41.3% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 21.4 vs Oral Roberts: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5) +16.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 55.4% vs Oral Roberts: 38.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.8%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 42.3% vs Oral Roberts: 27.4%
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.0 vs Oral Roberts: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 68.0 82
ORU Score 54.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 42.3 35.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.6 / 21.4 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 55.4 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 69.6 55.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 30.9 30.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.0 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 8.2 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
ORU
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
ORU
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
ORU
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORU
STMN
ORU
STMN
ML
85% 28-5
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
ATS
82% 27-6
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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