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SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

11-7  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

5-13  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
100%
📊
WAVES
0%
DONS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pepperdine)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

42.1%

Waves Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PEPP -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)

SF By 1-7 points

23.0%

SF By 8-14 points

12.2%

PEPP By 1-7 points

26.8%

PEPP By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SAN FRANCISCO
70
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
75
SAN FRANCISCO
68
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Waves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Waves (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Dons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 SF @ PEPP 80 - 60
Jan 16, 2025 SF @ PEPP 80 - 63
Feb 24, 2024 PEPP @ SF 68 - 92
Feb 8, 2024 SF @ PEPP 80 - 74
Feb 11, 2023 PEPP @ SF 80 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.4% more
Pepperdine: 14.5 vs San Francisco: 10.9
Steals (L5) +24.7% more
Pepperdine: 6.6 vs San Francisco: 5.3
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Pepperdine: 14.1 vs San Francisco: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Pepperdine: 76.6% vs San Francisco: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 68.0 80
PEPP Score 70.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.3 / 30.6 14.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.1 / 12.7 9.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 39.8 31.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 73.1 72.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 27.6 / 42.7 33.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.3 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.9 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
PEPP Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
SF
PEPP
SF
ML
62% 20-12
39% 13-20
69% 22-10
64% 21-12
ATS
56% 18-14
42% 14-19
69% 22-10
64% 21-12
TTL
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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