Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Minutemen BALL @ MASS

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

4-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Mullins Center
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

9-7  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
MINUTEMEN
100%
CARDINALS --
MINUTEMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 MinutemenMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

Minutemen Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MASS +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)

BALL By 1-7 points

27.2%

BALL By 8-14 points

23.0%

MASS By 1-7 points

18.6%

MASS By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
BALL STATE
64
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
70
BALL STATE
74
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Minutemen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Minutemen (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Minutemen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 MASS @ BALL 73 - 74
Jan 10, 2026 BALL @ MASS 71 - 79
Nov 21, 2021 BALL @ MASS 89 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +21.9% more
Ball State: 7.9 vs Massachusetts: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
Ball State: 79.7% vs Massachusetts: 71.0%
Rebounding (L5) +41.6% more
Massachusetts: 37.4 vs Ball State: 26.4
Assists (L5) +39.2% more
Massachusetts: 17.5 vs Ball State: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 69.0 71
MASS Score 64.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 29.9 38.0 / 35.0
Assists 17.5 / 12.6 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.3 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 38.4 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 79.7 69.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 26.4 36.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.9 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 9.5 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
MASS Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BALL
MASS
BALL
ML
44% 14-18
43% 13-17
68% 21-10
62% 18-11
ATS
47% 15-17
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
62% 18-11
TTL
56% 18-14
50% 15-15
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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