UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
3-14 | Road
60
SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
10-7 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
WARHAWKS
--
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
101.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Southern Miss)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)
ULM By 1-7 points
24.3%
ULM By 8-14 points
13.7%
USM By 1-7 points
26.2%
USM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
50
UL MONROE
Southern Miss
51
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
70
UL MONROE
Southern Miss
74
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Golden Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 101.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
ULM @ USM
60 - 70
Jan 1, 2026
USM @ ULM
87 - 73
Feb 15, 2025
USM @ ULM
74 - 81
Jan 9, 2025
ULM @ USM
67 - 84
Feb 15, 2024
ULM @ USM
68 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+40.8% more
Southern Miss: 37.1
vs
UL Monroe: 26.3
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
Southern Miss: 14.7
vs
UL Monroe: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Southern Miss: 78.7%
vs
UL Monroe: 71.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.7%
UL Monroe: 45.0%
vs
Southern Miss: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
50.0
60
USM Score
51.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.3 / 45.0
29.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.0 / 12.2
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.4
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 48.1
42.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
78.7 / 71.0
67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 26.3
36.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.5
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 13.3
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
USM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
USM
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ULM
USM
ULM
ML
53%
18-16
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
70%
21-9
ATS
59%
20-14
78%
25-7
74%
25-9
70%
21-9
TTL
68%
23-11
59%
19-13
100%
34-0
100%
30-0
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