Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Falcons UNM @ AF

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

12-3  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-12  |  Home

49
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
LOBOS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

24.2%

Falcons Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AF +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)

UNM By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

25.3%

AF By 1-7 points

15.3%

AF By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
95
NEW MEXICO
88
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
65
NEW MEXICO
78
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 AF @ UNM 61 - 98
Jan 10, 2026 UNM @ AF 91 - 49
Mar 1, 2025 AF @ UNM 71 - 92
Feb 8, 2025 UNM @ AF 88 - 53
Mar 13, 2024 AF @ UNM 56 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.7% more
New Mexico: 13.3 vs Air Force: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +21.3% more
New Mexico: 34.9 vs Air Force: 27.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.8%
New Mexico: 35.8% vs Air Force: 23.1%
Steals (L5) +9.2% more
New Mexico: 6.0 vs Air Force: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 95.0 91
AF Score 88.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.1 / 35.8 17.0 / 39.0
Assists 10.0 / 13.3 11.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 47.3 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 62.8 / 71.4 47.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 27.5 / 34.9 28.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.0 4.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 10.0 21.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
UNM
AF
UNM
ML
81% 26-6
57% 21-16
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
ATS
69% 22-10
57% 21-16
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
TTL
69% 22-10
41% 15-22
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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