Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Pacers MIA @ IND

MIAMI

HEATMIA

20-17  |  Road

99
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

7-31  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
HEAT --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indiana)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

46.0%

Pacers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

MIA By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

13.7%

IND By 1-7 points

26.2%

IND By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MIAMI
127
INDIANA
Simulated Score
108
MIAMI
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.5 Loss
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 MIA @ IND 118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026 MIA @ IND 99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 IND @ MIA 116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025 IND @ MIA 120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025 IND @ MIA 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Indiana: 42.8% vs Miami: 36.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Indiana: 49.1% vs Miami: 43.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.3%
Indiana: 82.9% vs Miami: 79.6%
Steals (L5) +21.1% more
Miami: 10.5 vs Indiana: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 126.0 99
IND Score 127.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.8 / 36.8 43.0 / 13.0
Assists 28.7 / 28.7 37.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.5 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 43.3 45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 79.6 82.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 45.8 54.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.3 / 10.5 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 16.7 18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
48% 47-50
48% 46-50
54% 45-38
59% 48-34
ATS
59% 57-40
51% 49-47
54% 45-38
59% 48-34
TTL
54% 52-45
59% 57-39
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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