BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
13-2 | Road
80
OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
9-7 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
BULLS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Ohio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OHIO -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)
BUF By 1-7 points
16.9%
BUF By 8-14 points
6.8%
OHIO By 1-7 points
26.8%
OHIO By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
83
BUFFALO
Ohio
89
OHIO
Simulated Score
Buffalo
71
BUFFALO
Ohio
76
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
OHIO @ BUF
95 - 83
Jan 10, 2026
BUF @ OHIO
80 - 91
Jan 7, 2025
OHIO @ BUF
88 - 79
Mar 5, 2024
OHIO @ BUF
78 - 66
Jan 30, 2024
BUF @ OHIO
70 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.8% more
Ohio: 3.6
vs
Buffalo: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+8.8% more
Ohio: 12.6
vs
Buffalo: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.6%
Buffalo: 81.0%
vs
Ohio: 68.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.1%
Buffalo: 40.7%
vs
Ohio: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
83.0
80
OHIO Score
89.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 40.7
35.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.2 / 15.3
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.5
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 50.9
60.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 81.0
85.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 32.8
39.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.1
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.6
18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
BUF
OHIO
BUF
ML
65%
20-11
45%
14-17
63%
19-11
45%
14-17
ATS
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
63%
19-11
45%
14-17
TTL
61%
19-12
48%
15-16
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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