IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
8-8 | Road
81
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
6-10 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BENGALS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
IDST By 1-7 points
1.4%
IDST By 8-14 points
5.8%
NAU By 1-7 points
0.1%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho State
99
IDAHO STATE
Northern Arizona
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Idaho State
71
IDAHO STATE
Northern Arizona
76
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bengals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bengals (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
NAU @ IDST
65 - 73
Feb 5, 2026
NAU @ IDST
79 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
IDST @ NAU
81 - 79
Mar 3, 2025
NAU @ IDST
82 - 79
Jan 2, 2025
IDST @ NAU
72 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+15.8% more
Idaho State: 3.9
vs
Northern Arizona: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
Idaho State: 72.2%
vs
Northern Arizona: 66.3%
Assists (L5)
+19.6% more
Northern Arizona: 13.7
vs
Idaho State: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Northern Arizona: 36.1%
vs
Idaho State: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDST Score
99.0
81
NAU Score
70.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 34.0
36.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.7 / 11.4
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.9
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 46.5
52.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 72.2
77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 33.4
24.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.2 / 5.1
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 10.4
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
IDST
NAU
IDST
ML
62%
20-12
59%
19-13
81%
26-6
72%
23-9
ATS
62%
20-12
50%
16-16
81%
26-6
72%
23-9
TTL
66%
21-11
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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