Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Mavericks ACU @ UTA

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-6  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

10-5  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
WILDCATS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Abilene Christian)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

96.4%

Mavericks Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ACU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

ACU By 1-7 points

10.7%

ACU By 8-14 points

21.6%

UTA By 1-7 points

2.7%

UTA By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
86
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
68
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
69
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
74
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UTA @ ACU 64 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 UTA @ ACU 63 - 67
Jan 10, 2026 ACU @ UTA 72 - 82
Mar 1, 2025 ACU @ UTA 70 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 UTA @ ACU 79 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.7% more
Abilene Christian: 14.7 vs UT Arlington: 12.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Abilene Christian: 15.5 vs UT Arlington: 13.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Abilene Christian: 50.8% vs UT Arlington: 44.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Abilene Christian: 78.1% vs UT Arlington: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 86.0 72
UTA Score 68.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 34.3 38.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.7 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.4 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 50.8 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 78.1 86.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 28.4 32.0 / 20.0
Steals 8.2 / 8.6 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 15.5 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
ACU
UTA
ACU
ML
50% 16-16
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
TTL
53% 17-15
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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