Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Golden Hurricane USF @ TLSA

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

9-6  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:00 PM ET
Reynolds Center
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

13-2  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
BULLS --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tulsa)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

34.5%

Golden Hurricane Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

USF By 1-7 points

20.1%

USF By 8-14 points

9.3%

TLSA By 1-7 points

27.4%

TLSA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SOUTH FLORIDA
66
TULSA
Simulated Score
69
SOUTH FLORIDA
73
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 8, 2026 TLSA @ USF 74 - 80
Jan 10, 2026 USF @ TLSA 93 - 78
Jan 18, 2025 TLSA @ USF 56 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 USF @ TLSA 70 - 76
Feb 14, 2024 TLSA @ USF 50 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Tulsa: 80.8% vs South Florida: 71.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Tulsa: 40.8% vs South Florida: 32.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Tulsa: 49.8% vs South Florida: 44.2%
Blocks (L5) +22.3% more
South Florida: 3.9 vs Tulsa: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 62.0 93
TLSA Score 66.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 32.0 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.4 / 17.2 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 44.2 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 71.8 79.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 45.0 31.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.8 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 13.7 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
USF
TLSA
USF
ML
66% 25-13
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
52% 16-15
ATS
74% 28-10
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
52% 16-15
TTL
58% 22-16
52% 17-16
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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