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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

13-5  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Baxter Arena
View Odds Details →

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

8-10  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
BISON --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (North Dakota State)
BisonNDSU (-3.5) 0 MavericksOMA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

97.1%

Mavericks Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

NDSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

NDSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

OMA By 1-7 points

2.2%

OMA By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
89
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
70
OMAHA
Simulated Score
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
75
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 50 - 74
Feb 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 84 - 92
Jan 10, 2026 NDSU @ OMA 78 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 NDSU @ OMA 74 - 85
Jan 4, 2025 OMA @ NDSU 85 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.8% more
North Dakota State: 9.2 vs Omaha: 5.1
Blocks (L5) +19.3% more
North Dakota State: 3.3 vs Omaha: 2.6
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
North Dakota State: 15.6 vs Omaha: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
North Dakota State: 38.2 vs Omaha: 34.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 89.0 78
OMA Score 70.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 36.8 41.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.2 / 15.6 19.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.3 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 48.8 51.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 67.7 93.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 38.2 30.0 / 21.0
Steals 5.1 / 9.2 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.9 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
NDSU
OMA
NDSU
ML
79% 26-7
49% 17-18
67% 22-11
59% 20-14
ATS
76% 25-8
54% 19-16
67% 22-11
59% 20-14
TTL
73% 24-9
43% 15-20
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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