Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Wildcats MSST @ UK

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

10-5  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:30 PM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

9-6  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BULLDOGS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Kentucky)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

9.7%

Wildcats Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

MSST By 1-7 points

6.8%

MSST By 8-14 points

1.7%

UK By 1-7 points

18.6%

UK By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
MISSISSIPPI STATE
96
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
71
MISSISSIPPI STATE
78
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 MSST @ UK 68 - 92
Jan 11, 2025 UK @ MSST 95 - 90
Feb 27, 2024 UK @ MSST 91 - 89
Jan 17, 2024 MSST @ UK 77 - 90
Feb 15, 2023 UK @ MSST 71 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.6% more
Kentucky: 15.4 vs Mississippi State: 11.2
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Kentucky: 11.6 vs Mississippi State: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Kentucky: 33.4% vs Mississippi State: 26.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Kentucky: 72.6% vs Mississippi State: 70.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 83.0 68
UK Score 96.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 26.8 41.0 / 15.0
Assists 15.4 / 11.2 21.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.1 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 45.5 55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 70.2 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 44.2 36.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.9 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.3 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UK Advantage
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UK Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
MSST
UK
MSST
ML
71% 25-10
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
55% 17-14
ATS
83% 29-6
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
55% 17-14
TTL
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 40 minutes ago
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 6 hours, 47 minutes ago
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 13 hours ago