Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tritons @ Highlanders UCSD @ UCR

UC SAN DIEGO

TRITONSUCSD

12-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
SRC Arena
View Odds Details →

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

6-10  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
📊
HIGHLANDERS
100%
TRITONS --
HIGHLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UC San Diego)
TritonsUCSD (-3.5) 0 HighlandersUCR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tritons Cover

98.9%

Highlanders Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)

UCSD By 1-7 points

4.8%

UCSD By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCR By 1-7 points

0.8%

UCR By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
77
UC SAN DIEGO
54
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
68
UC SAN DIEGO
72
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tritons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tritons (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Highlanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 UCR @ UCSD 66 - 72
Jan 10, 2026 UCSD @ UCR 69 - 66
Feb 6, 2025 UCR @ UCSD 71 - 91
Jan 18, 2025 UCSD @ UCR 81 - 85
Feb 22, 2024 UCSD @ UCR 77 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.3% more
UC San Diego: 14.7 vs UC Riverside: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
UC San Diego: 38.1 vs UC Riverside: 31.2
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
UC San Diego: 81.3% vs UC Riverside: 67.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
UC San Diego: 43.2% vs UC Riverside: 41.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score 77.0 69
UCR Score 54.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.4 28.0 / 22.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.7 11.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.7 / 1.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 43.2 37.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 81.3 85.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 38.1 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.9 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 12.1 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -6.0
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
UCSD
UCR
UCSD
ML
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
75% 24-8
65% 22-12
ATS
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
75% 24-8
65% 22-12
TTL
66% 21-11
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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