Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Golden Eagles VILL @ MARQ

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

12-3  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:30 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

6-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
WILDCATS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Marquette)
WildcatsVILL (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

3.6%

Golden Eagles Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

VILL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.5%

MARQ By 1-7 points

10.7%

MARQ By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
57
VILLANOVA
75
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
73
VILLANOVA
77
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 MARQ @ VILL 74 - 77
Jan 10, 2026 VILL @ MARQ 76 - 73
Feb 21, 2025 MARQ @ VILL 66 - 81
Jan 24, 2025 VILL @ MARQ 74 - 87
Mar 14, 2024 VILL @ MARQ 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.9% more
Marquette: 9.8 vs Villanova: 7.0
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Marquette: 11.7 vs Villanova: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +16.9% more
Marquette: 38.9 vs Villanova: 33.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.0%
Villanova: 69.8% vs Marquette: 59.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 57.0 76
MARQ Score 75.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.7 / 33.5 35.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.1 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 37.1 / 45.6 44.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 59.8 / 69.8 80.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 33.2 27.0 / 26.0
Steals 9.8 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 9.1 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
VILL
MARQ
VILL
ML
59% 19-13
44% 14-18
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
53% 17-15
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
41% 13-19
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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