Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Patriots VCU @ GMU

VCU

RAMSVCU

11-5  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 12:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

15-1  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
RAMS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (George Mason)
RamsVCU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

24.2%

Patriots Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

VCU By 1-7 points

15.3%

VCU By 8-14 points

5.8%

GMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

GMU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
VCU
68
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
67
VCU
71
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GMU @ VCU 65 - 70
Jan 10, 2026 VCU @ GMU 80 - 86
Mar 16, 2025 GMU @ VCU 63 - 68
Feb 22, 2025 GMU @ VCU 54 - 70
Jan 9, 2024 VCU @ GMU 54 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
George Mason: 47.5% vs VCU: 45.3%
Blocks (L5) +44.6% more
VCU: 5.3 vs George Mason: 3.0
Steals (L5) +37.5% more
VCU: 8.0 vs George Mason: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +28.3% more
VCU: 10.8 vs George Mason: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VCU Score 61.0 80
GMU Score 68.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.0 / 34.6 21.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.2 / 12.9 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.3 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 45.3 56.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 81.6 88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 36.3 29.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.0 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 7.7 / 10.8 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU Advantage
28-8-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
GMU
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
GMU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
VCU
GMU
VCU
ML
55% 18-15
72% 26-10
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
ATS
55% 18-15
81% 29-7
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
TTL
58% 19-14
58% 21-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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