Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Longhorns @ Crimson Tide TEX @ ALA

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

9-6  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

11-4  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
LONGHORNS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Alabama)
LonghornsTEX (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Longhorns Cover

0.0%

Crimson Tide Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

TEX By 1-7 points

0.0%

TEX By 8-14 points

0.0%

ALA By 1-7 points

0.4%

ALA By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
68
TEXAS
102
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
75
TEXAS
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u177.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u177.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 TEX @ ALA 92 - 88
Feb 11, 2025 ALA @ TEX 103 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.9% more
Alabama: 4.2 vs Texas: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +21.6% more
Alabama: 44.8 vs Texas: 36.8
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Alabama: 14.9 vs Texas: 12.8
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Texas: 7.4 vs Alabama: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 68.0 92
ALA Score 102.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 33.6 39.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.9 / 12.8 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.0 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 45.9 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 76.0 70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 36.8 38.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.5 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
TEX
ALA
TEX
ML
63% 22-13
58% 21-15
58% 19-14
56% 19-15
ATS
60% 21-14
56% 20-16
58% 19-14
56% 19-15
TTL
63% 22-13
64% 23-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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