Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Colonels CARK @ EKU

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

7-9  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Baptist Health Arena
View Odds Details →

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

5-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
COLONELS
100%
BEARS --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Central Arkansas)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 ColonelsEKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

94.5%

Colonels Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-7 points

13.7%

CARK By 8-14 points

24.3%

EKU By 1-7 points

4.0%

EKU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
50
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
70
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
78
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Colonels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 EKU @ CARK 81 - 90
Jan 10, 2026 CARK @ EKU 75 - 79
Jan 2, 2025 EKU @ CARK 89 - 83
Feb 24, 2024 CARK @ EKU 82 - 95
Jan 11, 2024 EKU @ CARK 86 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.2% more
Central Arkansas: 7.8 vs Eastern Kentucky: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +19.4% more
Central Arkansas: 10.4 vs Eastern Kentucky: 8.4
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Central Arkansas: 17.6 vs Eastern Kentucky: 15.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Central Arkansas: 75.3% vs Eastern Kentucky: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 66.0 75
EKU Score 50.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 35.8 42.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.0 / 17.6 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.3 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 43.8 44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 75.3 57.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 36.1 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.8 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 10.4 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
EKU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
EKU
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
CARK
EKU
CARK
ML
44% 14-18
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 16-16-1
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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