TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
ISLANDERSAMCC
8-7 | Road
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
4-11 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
DEMONS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMCC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMCC)
AMCC By 1-7 points
21.6%
AMCC By 8-14 points
27.4%
NWST By 1-7 points
9.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
68
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Northwestern State
57
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
68
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Northwestern State
72
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
NWST @ AMCC
59 - 71
Jan 10, 2026
AMCC @ NWST
78 - 79
Mar 10, 2025
AMCC @ NWST
63 - 66
Jan 13, 2025
NWST @ AMCC
64 - 73
Feb 19, 2024
NWST @ AMCC
61 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.3% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 2.9
vs
Northwestern State: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+28.1% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 9.1
vs
Northwestern State: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+24.1% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 14.9
vs
Northwestern State: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+20.6% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 40.1
vs
Northwestern State: 31.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AMCC Score
68.0
78
NWST Score
57.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 37.1
50.0 / 33.0
Assists
11.3 / 14.9
11.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.6 / 2.9
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 46.2
56.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 69.6
79.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 40.1
30.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.1
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 11.9
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMCC
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMCC
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AMCC
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -2.3
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
AMCC
NWST
AMCC
ML
68%
21-10
70%
21-9
77%
23-7
67%
18-9
ATS
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
77%
23-7
67%
18-9
TTL
39%
12-19
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
27-0
