TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
9-8 | Road
82
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
11-5 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
RED WOLVES
0%
BOBCATS
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
TXST By 1-7 points
18.6%
TXST By 8-14 points
8.0%
ARST By 1-7 points
27.2%
ARST By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
62
TEXAS STATE
Arkansas State
67
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
Texas State
71
TEXAS STATE
Arkansas State
75
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
TXST @ ARST
82 - 83
Dec 17, 2025
ARST @ TXST
89 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
ARST @ TXST
85 - 74
Jan 25, 2025
TXST @ ARST
65 - 80
Jan 20, 2024
ARST @ TXST
79 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.9% more
Arkansas State: 41.6
vs
Texas State: 36.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Arkansas State: 35.1%
vs
Texas State: 29.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Arkansas State: 73.4%
vs
Texas State: 69.8%
Blocks (L5)
+32.8% more
Texas State: 4.1
vs
Arkansas State: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
62.0
82
ARST Score
67.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 29.6
25.0 / 18.0
Assists
13.8 / 13.4
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.1
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 44.4
41.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 69.8
78.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 36.5
43.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.8 / 10.2
11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.4
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
TXST
ARST
TXST
ML
48%
15-16
42%
13-18
53%
16-14
83%
25-5
ATS
58%
18-13
48%
15-16
53%
16-14
84%
26-5
TTL
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
100%
30-0
100%
31-0