Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Cardinals BC @ LOU

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

7-8  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 12:00 PM ET
KFC Yum! Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

11-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
EAGLES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Louisville)
EaglesBC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

27.4%

Cardinals Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

BC By 1-7 points

16.9%

BC By 8-14 points

6.8%

LOU By 1-7 points

26.8%

LOU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BOSTON COLLEGE
81
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
72
BOSTON COLLEGE
76
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 BC @ LOU 62 - 75
Feb 5, 2025 LOU @ BC 84 - 58
Mar 9, 2024 BC @ LOU 67 - 61
Feb 13, 2024 LOU @ BC 77 - 89
Mar 7, 2023 LOU @ BC 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +50.9% more
Louisville: 6.2 vs Boston College: 4.1
Assists (L5) +44.2% more
Louisville: 15.0 vs Boston College: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Louisville: 40.2 vs Boston College: 36.0
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Louisville: 79.0% vs Boston College: 68.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 75.0 62
LOU Score 81.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 34.3 29.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.0 / 10.4 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.3 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 41.1 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 68.7 76.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 36.0 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.1 13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
BC
LOU
BC
ML
63% 22-13
61% 19-12
71% 24-10
61% 17-11
ATS
71% 25-10
73% 22-8-1
71% 24-10
61% 17-11
TTL
63% 22-13
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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